Thursday, July 3, 2008

Opening Leads Against No Trump Contracts (Part 2)

The bidding of no trump contracts has become so simple and precise, even novices have astoundingly high success rates. Although you can hope that opponents will misplay the hand, they are odds on favorites to make the contract. In no trump contracts, usually the matchpoints are won or lost on the opening lead. It boils down to whether you are going to give opponents an extra trick on the opening lead by finessing partner, finessing yourself (even worse), starting a suit in which opponents have length or giving declarer a “tempo” so that he has time to develop a different side suit before you knock out his single stopper.

The natural advantage declarer has in a no trump contract is that he has a big hand and the lead is often coming up to his AQx and KJx tenaces. Sometimes a "give away" is unavoidable, but you can minimize your exposure two ways. First, don’t make speculative "squirrelly" leads that are long shots in the hopes of finding partner with specific cards that he is not likely to hold. This is sure to put a smile on declarer’s face. Second, look at the hand and ask yourself what are other players going to lead from the mess you are looking at. Even if the lead turns out to be awful, if everybody else makes the same choice, you get an average board. This technique is referred to as “swimming with the fishes” and works quite effectively.

Honor leads in no trump are not common and almost invariably they are from a sequence of honors, a broken sequence (KQTx) or from an interior sequence (KJTx). If partner leads a King in a no trump contract, it is a command for you to unblock with any honor you may hold in the suit. For example, from AKJxx you would lead the King asking partner to jettison any honor he holds. So holding Qx or Txxx, he is asking you to play the honor under his King.

What do you do if you hold two honors but they are not in a sequence such as AQxx or KJxx. If opponents are in a contract of 3NT, start your analysis with the thought that they have roughly 2/3rds of the hcps. Who is most likely to hold the KJ or the AQ in those two examples. You got it, the opponents, and most of the time it will be the declarer. The moisture you see on declarer’s chin is drool and not sweat.

OK, I am sure you can remember a time when opponents bid a no trump game without a stopper and partner held those key cards. Try to remember that bridge is a game of percentages and that you want to develop a habit of making leads and plays that will work most of the time. Under leading a tenace at no trump is a long term loser. Equally unappealing is leading either honor. You want this suit led by your partner and through declarer and you need to develop patience and have confidence that partner will make the lead. If partner does not have an entry, this defense is not going anywhere anyway. Even if partner can not or does not lead this suit, it is better to force declarer to break the suit.

Well, after all that advice you may still decide you must lead either suit. By all means lead from the KJxx, a far superior lead than from AQxx. The reason: If you lead from KJxx there are two cards that can protect you, the A or Q. When you lead from AQxx, there is only one card partner can hold to avoid disaster, the King. So the odds are 2:1 by way of comparison.

Other than honor sequence leads, when defending no trump contracts, generally stay with the time honored rule of 4th best from the longest and strongest. First, you are not likely to defeat a no trump contract by your preponderance of high card points. It is not Aces and Kings that doom most no trump contracts, it’s the 2’s, 3’s and 4’s in that long suit you were able to develop before declarer got 9 tricks. So you need to get started on that right away. Second, when you lead 4th best, partner can employ the Rule of 11 and obtain some idea of declarer’s holding. I follow this rule pretty religiously if I have a 5+ card suit. Experience has taught me that leading from 4th best when you only have 4 cards in the suit headed by a single subordinate honor (Queen or Jack) often gives away more tricks that it gains. Look for something else.

If you don’t have any entries back to your hand after your opening lead, it is pointless to work on your suit, it will never materialize. When I have that kind of hand, I try to lead something that looks like it might help my partner, often an unbid major. If the bidding has gone 1NT/3NT, it sounds like opponents do not have an interest in majors. Since they lack interest in majors, that should be where our interest lies.

If partner has bid a suit, and the opponents bid a NT contract right in his face, you have a tough decision. I generally lead partner’s suit, even if I have a singleton. Better to lose a board than to lose a partner. If I have bid a suit and they bid a NT contract in my face, if I am on lead I will generally not lead my suit unless I have an honor sequence of some kind. Without a sequence, it is better to hope that partner can get the lead and lead your suit through declarer. So, the fact that partner did not lead his bid suit does not indicate lack of interest in the suit, he just does not want to lead it up to declarer.

Here are some “Don’ts”:

1. Don't leada short suit unless partner has bid it or directed the lead.
2. Dont lead a suit opponents have bid, particularly one bid by declarer.
3. Don't lead Aces or other high honors that are unsupported.

In the next blog post we will cover leads at suit contracts. Does anyone want to “guest author” this? Warning: It must fit on 20 pages single spaced!

1 comment:

Unknown said...

Your guidance on NT leads were inspiring and simple to read and understand.

Thanks for your contribution and keep up the good work

Sunil
India