It is well known that I have more than a passing interest in odds and probabilities as they relate to the game of Bridge. I can’t say that the knowledge I have acquired has made any significant difference in my life, but at times it does steer me into the correct line of play for maximizing my opportunities. Often good players, who know nothing about bridge probabilities and could care less, make the same plays because of their vast experience. I am still waiting for that life change to happen!!
Playing yesterday with my excellent partner Howard Christ at Citrus Springs we were dealt the following hands.
Howard (North) AKxx, Axx, Qxx, JT.
Tommy (South) QT, xx, Axx, AKQxxx.
We play Kaplan Sheinwold (updated) so our opening 1 No Trump bids are 11-14 hcps. Howard dealt and opened 1NT. In spite of the voices of the Bridge Gods begging me to respond 3NT, I fell in love with my 7 tricks off the top (partner must have at least 2 clubs), and my distributional values. I bid 4 clubs (Gerber) and speed past 3 NT. Horror of horrors, partner shows 2 Aces and now I really am in a fix. There is no turning back, so I ask for Kings and partner shows 1 King. Since I have already waived goodbye to all sensible contracts, I slam down a stack of bidding cards with 6 clubs on top.
West, an experienced player, leads a small trump against my slam taken by the Jack in the dummy. Why do people lead trump against a small slam? It should set your nose twitching. As Howard said, they usually have something to hide! Now I need a plan for declaring this hand that will end up with 12 tricks.
My attention is immediately drawn to the spade suit. Since opponents have 7 spades between them, dropping the Jack in three swings is a distinct underdog. (I later looked it up, about a 25% probability). Another choice is a simple finesse in the spade suit, finding the Jack with East is a 50-50 proposition. If that works, I have 4 spades, 6 clubs, a heart and a diamond. But I wonder, is the Jack of spades one of the cards that West is hiding? Another possibility is finding the King of diamonds with West. That is also 50-50, but a more appealing choice given the lead.
Then I remembered a hand that I saw a couple of years ago in Pat Peterson’s class on “The Play of the Hand.” In that hand Declarer had have two choices to make his contract, splitting a 7 card diamond suit 3-3 or taking a simple finesse. While the finesse was the better opportunity, the example pointed out that when you have two chances, you should play them in a manner so that if the first chance fails you can still try the second chance. In that example, you play on the 7 card diamond suit first since if the suit does not split 3-3, you can still try the finesse. If you try the finesse first and it loses, you never get a second chance, you’re cooked!
Somehow I got the flash that this hand was full payment for staying awake in Pat’s class. If I try to finesse the diamond King first and my queen loses to East's King , I can still try the spade finesse, but if I do it the other way around and the spade jack is off side, I never get to the diamond finesse. After pulling trump, on trick three I laid down a small diamond. As soon as it hit the table I saw a small flinch come from West -- now I know what she was hiding. West put up the Kimg and the contract was home. A cold top. Now the location of the jack of spades is academic and only of interest to statisticians.
So, here is the lesson and you are not even going to have to pay Pat to learn it. When you have two chances to make your contract, arrange your play if you can so that if one chance loses, you can still try the second chance. Even if you are not a numbers guy, you would have to be impressed that getting the order of play correct changed a simple 50% chance into a 75% probability. Having two bites at the apple is always better than one.
You are probably wondering who held the Jack of Spades. To be honest, I was so excited about making this contract that I can’t remember. Probably West, she’s pretty sneaky!
Saturday, March 29, 2008
Wednesday, March 12, 2008
Combined Bergen Raises --The Final Word!
My recent post on Combined Bergen Raises was one of the most popular ever. It has generated comment not only from United States, but also two comments from Europe, one from Portugal and one from Spain. I always claimed my blog was read world wide, now I can prove it.
With Combined Bergen ,the 1NT response to a major sit opener can be played as semi-forcing instead of forcing. Opener can pass a 1NT response if he has a balanced minimum hand and no secondary 4 card suit. In my original blog post, I panned this idea saying it sounded like Old School Bridge. Since my initial writing I have played 1NT semi-forcing. Guess what – I am now a convert! I have benefited from some nice boards playing 1NT contracts after a 1 of a major opening. The results speak for themselves. So we have reached another blog landmark, I made a mistake – or maybe the landmark is that I am just admitting it for the first time!!!!
I have also had commentary from several hard core Bergen Raise advocates who claim Combined Bergen is flawed since in the sequence 1 heart/3 clubs (7-12 hcps)/3 diamonds(constructive raise or limit raise?)/3 spades (limit raise) opener has lost the opportunity to stop the auction at 3 hearts with a minimum holding. True enough. My Rochester NY partner, Jim Bailey, made the same observation, but also provided the obvious answer. If you do not want to play at game when responder has a limit raise, why did you bid 3 diamonds in the first place! If you don’t want to go to war with a limit raise partner, don’t bid 3 diamonds, bid 3 hearts and get out.
This functionally is no different whether you are playing Original Bergen, Reverse Bergen or Combined Bergen. If partner opens a Rule of 20 hand, he has to have a way to stop the music. The bidding sequence in all three is the same, 1h/3c/3h. I hope you don’t think that 3 hearts is invitational? Are you going to flog opener forever for his good intentions. I hope not, but if so, I have a seat for you as a permanent East-West at my table.
Yesterday I held xxxx, Qx, Kxxx, KQx. My partner, Kenn Thornton, opened 1 spade and I bid 3 clubs. Now this hand is no thing of beauty, but I liked the fact that my values were outside the trump suit, that I had Kings and Queens and no Jacks, and that I had touching honors in clubs. I also liked the doubleton but certainly the value of the Queen of hearts was suspect. It is an 8 LTC hand, the minimum expectation of a limit raise. I toyed with the idea of just making a single raise, but was able to resist masterminding the situation. Time to trust partner to do the right thing! What a noble concept!
Kenn for her opener held AKQxx, Jxxx, x, Jxx. I certainly want her to open this hand: it meets the rule of 20, it has 2 quick tricks, it is a 7 LTC count hand and has a convenient rebid if necessary. A potential analysis for opener is “if responder has an 8 LTC hand for his limit raise, our total LTC is 15, one too many for game.” I don’t know if Kenn made that analysis, but she did have the sense to bid 3 spades and shut down the auction. The hand made exactly 3 spades and everybody at game went down one.
If all forms of Bergen correctly bid reach the same contract, why bother with Combined Bergen? The answer is that standard Bergen/1NT forcing treatment has some systemic issues that are effectively overcome with Combined Bergen.
First, by using the 3 diamond response to show the 3 card limit raise, we no longer have a need to make a 1NT response forcing. Simply being able to pass partner's 1NT response has been demonstrated to be matchpoint correct with certain minimum hands.
Second, with the 3 card limit raise I think it is important to bid three diamonds rather than 1NT forcing, since the 3 diamond response does have preemptive value. Notice that the three level is well protected by the law of total tricks. If the bidding goes 1h/p/1NT/2s/p/3s, all the room in the auction to show your limit raise has disappeared. You can try 4 hearts, but a lot of 3 card limit raises do not make game against a minimum opener, mostly because responder often has 3-3-3-4 distribution, and there is no ruffing value in the dummy.
Third, another positive is that the 1NT forcing response can now show a hand with exactly 2 trump. No more guessing whether partner has 2 or 3 card support.
Lastly, if we are using 1NT forcing to show a limit raise, and partner with a big hand opens 1 heart and subsequently makes a jump shift to 3 clubs, what does responder do next? Would a bid of 3 hearts show a limit raise, or could partner with a minimum response and 2 hearts be taking a simple preference? With the limit raise hand does partner have to bid 4 hearts over 3 clubs, and if so how does opener know that is not simply “fast arrival”?
For all of these reasons I suggest you try Combined Bergen. Yes, I know it is new and we all hate anything new, but in final analysis, it is more than just “just another mousetrap.” Now as to the part about “final word”, don’t count on it!
With Combined Bergen ,the 1NT response to a major sit opener can be played as semi-forcing instead of forcing. Opener can pass a 1NT response if he has a balanced minimum hand and no secondary 4 card suit. In my original blog post, I panned this idea saying it sounded like Old School Bridge. Since my initial writing I have played 1NT semi-forcing. Guess what – I am now a convert! I have benefited from some nice boards playing 1NT contracts after a 1 of a major opening. The results speak for themselves. So we have reached another blog landmark, I made a mistake – or maybe the landmark is that I am just admitting it for the first time!!!!
I have also had commentary from several hard core Bergen Raise advocates who claim Combined Bergen is flawed since in the sequence 1 heart/3 clubs (7-12 hcps)/3 diamonds(constructive raise or limit raise?)/3 spades (limit raise) opener has lost the opportunity to stop the auction at 3 hearts with a minimum holding. True enough. My Rochester NY partner, Jim Bailey, made the same observation, but also provided the obvious answer. If you do not want to play at game when responder has a limit raise, why did you bid 3 diamonds in the first place! If you don’t want to go to war with a limit raise partner, don’t bid 3 diamonds, bid 3 hearts and get out.
This functionally is no different whether you are playing Original Bergen, Reverse Bergen or Combined Bergen. If partner opens a Rule of 20 hand, he has to have a way to stop the music. The bidding sequence in all three is the same, 1h/3c/3h. I hope you don’t think that 3 hearts is invitational? Are you going to flog opener forever for his good intentions. I hope not, but if so, I have a seat for you as a permanent East-West at my table.
Yesterday I held xxxx, Qx, Kxxx, KQx. My partner, Kenn Thornton, opened 1 spade and I bid 3 clubs. Now this hand is no thing of beauty, but I liked the fact that my values were outside the trump suit, that I had Kings and Queens and no Jacks, and that I had touching honors in clubs. I also liked the doubleton but certainly the value of the Queen of hearts was suspect. It is an 8 LTC hand, the minimum expectation of a limit raise. I toyed with the idea of just making a single raise, but was able to resist masterminding the situation. Time to trust partner to do the right thing! What a noble concept!
Kenn for her opener held AKQxx, Jxxx, x, Jxx. I certainly want her to open this hand: it meets the rule of 20, it has 2 quick tricks, it is a 7 LTC count hand and has a convenient rebid if necessary. A potential analysis for opener is “if responder has an 8 LTC hand for his limit raise, our total LTC is 15, one too many for game.” I don’t know if Kenn made that analysis, but she did have the sense to bid 3 spades and shut down the auction. The hand made exactly 3 spades and everybody at game went down one.
If all forms of Bergen correctly bid reach the same contract, why bother with Combined Bergen? The answer is that standard Bergen/1NT forcing treatment has some systemic issues that are effectively overcome with Combined Bergen.
First, by using the 3 diamond response to show the 3 card limit raise, we no longer have a need to make a 1NT response forcing. Simply being able to pass partner's 1NT response has been demonstrated to be matchpoint correct with certain minimum hands.
Second, with the 3 card limit raise I think it is important to bid three diamonds rather than 1NT forcing, since the 3 diamond response does have preemptive value. Notice that the three level is well protected by the law of total tricks. If the bidding goes 1h/p/1NT/2s/p/3s, all the room in the auction to show your limit raise has disappeared. You can try 4 hearts, but a lot of 3 card limit raises do not make game against a minimum opener, mostly because responder often has 3-3-3-4 distribution, and there is no ruffing value in the dummy.
Third, another positive is that the 1NT forcing response can now show a hand with exactly 2 trump. No more guessing whether partner has 2 or 3 card support.
Lastly, if we are using 1NT forcing to show a limit raise, and partner with a big hand opens 1 heart and subsequently makes a jump shift to 3 clubs, what does responder do next? Would a bid of 3 hearts show a limit raise, or could partner with a minimum response and 2 hearts be taking a simple preference? With the limit raise hand does partner have to bid 4 hearts over 3 clubs, and if so how does opener know that is not simply “fast arrival”?
For all of these reasons I suggest you try Combined Bergen. Yes, I know it is new and we all hate anything new, but in final analysis, it is more than just “just another mousetrap.” Now as to the part about “final word”, don’t count on it!
Sunday, March 2, 2008
Combating the Poison Gas Factory (lebensohl)
My last post discussed some of the easier treatments for combating opponent’s overcalls when partner opens 1NT. In retrospect, I think the “for dummies” system offered by Larry Cohen and summarized in my last post is the best if you want to keep it simple. The complete and most effective system is a treatment called “lebensohl.” Lebensohl has been around for years. In 1987 Ron Anderson wrote a book about it. This post relates only to lebensohl when partner opens 1NT and opponents make a natural or conventional overcall, although sister systems also deal with bidding over weak 2 bids and bidding reverses.
While the basic lebensohl system remains substantially the same as originally conceived, in the past 20 years experts have continued to refine it in an effort to deal with every card combination that will ever arise. With about 465 billion possible card combinations, you can imagine the complexity that fertile minds have introduced to this once useful system. It is sort of like “the challenge is no longer the opponent’s overcall, but rather the system to deal with it.” Of course when you edit out complexity, something has to give – it probably means that you are going to see a few hands in your lifetime that have no perfect response. That’s the way it goes! If you want the full dose, the “medium complicated” system described on Larry Cohen’s website (http://www.larryco.com/) is probably better than most.
A. Lebensohl’s 2NT Relay Bid.
At the heart of the lebensohl system is the response of 2NT relaying opening bidder to 3 clubs. This relay enables us to differentiate bids based on whether they are made before or after the 2NT relay. If made before the relay they are classified as “fast bids” and if made after the relay are classified a “slow bids.” Since we have an overcall, our ability to continue our auction and play a no trump contract depends on whether we hold a stopper in the overcalled suit(s). Using our slow and fast terminology and applying it to stoppers, the rule is “slow shows and fast denies.” This concept will be applied as we work our way through the bidding structure.
B. Lebensohl in a Nutshell (that’s a laugh!)
1. Opponent’s Doubles. If opponents double partner’s 1NT opening bid, we ignore it and all regular no trump systems are on. e.g. 1NT/x/2d is transfer to hearts. If opponent’s double is a penalty double (equal values) you may want to use redouble as a “run out.” As such it would tell partner to bid his 4 card suits up the line so we can find a safer place to play.
2. Opponent’s Overcalls. Partner opens 1NT and LHO makes a natural or conventional overcall.
a. A 2 club overcall is played as “systems on/ stolen bid.” Thus 1NT/2C/X is Stayman and 2D and 2H would be transfers.
b. If the overcall is 2D or 2H, any other available natural response at the two level is to play. e.g. 1NT/2D/2H or 2S are to play
c. Any 3 level bid is forcing to game. 1NT/2D/3H forces to game in hearts or 3NT. The same would hold true for a 3 level response in the minors
d. The response of 2NT is a relay for partner to bid 3 clubs. After the 3 club bid, passing, or bidding any suit bid under the rank of the overcalled suit, is to play. 1NT/2H/2NT/P/3C/P/3D is to play. Any suit bid over the rank of the overcall is invitational in that suit. 1NT/2d/2NT/P/3C/P/3H is invitational in hearts. (5 card suit + 9 hcps).
e. A direct cue bid by responder is game forcing Stayman. It shows at least one 4 card major and denies a stopper. 1NT/2H/3H shows 4 spades and denies a heart stopper. (remember FAST denies!)
f. A 2NT relay followed by a cue bid in opponent’s suit is also Stayman, but it shows a stopper. 1NT/2H/2NT/P/3C/P/3H shows 4 spades and a stopper in hearts.
g. A direct bid of 3NT after the overcall is a game force and denies a stopper. It would also deny a four card major, since you would have used Stayman by making a cue bid. Thus, 1NT/2H/3NT (no 4 card major and game force values, no heart stopper). Once more “fast denies.”
h. A response of 2NT followed by a bid of 3NT shows a stopper and denies a 4 card major. 1NT/2H/2NT/P/3C/P/3NT is to play. With a four card major you would have made a delayed cue bid for Stayman with a stopper.
i. Any 4 level bid is “front of the card” (i.e. whatever you play over 1NT without the overcall such as Texas Transfer, Gerber, etc).
3. Know What Your Opponent’s Overcalls Mean. Yes you need to ask now, don’t wait until the end of the bidding. If the bid of 2 clubs is Landy (showing majors) or 2 diamonds (Cappelletti showing majors) you don’t want to be making a Stayman response.
4. We Double their Overcall. Unlike original lebensohl, the double is not for penalty, it is negative. This is probably the most useful action we have. Although it usually shows shortness in the bid suit and frequently an unbid 4 card major, in final analysis it says I got some stuff partner and don’t have another bid I like. This double definitely requests some take out from opener. If responder wants to penalty double he must pass and hope that partner reopens the bidding with a double. Opener should reopen if has 2 cards or less in the overcalled suit.
5. Stopper Protocol. Stopper issues only arise where overcalls are conventional showing 2 suits.
a. Many two suited overcalls disclose both suits such as the Cappelletti overcall of 2 diamonds showing majors. If you relay and bid one of the majors it shows a stopper only in that major. If following the relay you bid 3NT, it shows a stopper in both majors. It says nothing about diamonds.
b. More troublesome are bids like the DONT bid of 2 diamonds which shows diamonds and either hearts or spades. Fortunately there are few of them. It is hard to deal with the stopper issue when one of the suits is unknown. Here’s where I take a shortcut. If you have all three stopped, go ahead and bid a delayed 3NT. Since overcaller does not have both majors, you could still use a direct cue bid as Stayman. If you have clubs (a distinct possibility) show your club suit either before or after the relay. Perhaps the easiest thing to do with “cards” is to make a negative double.
c. If the overcall is conventional and shows a single suit, don’t wait for the single suit relay. Take normal Lebensohl action immediately before they find a fit. Most single suit conventional bids are 2 clubs or double. Over either bid, normal no trump system bids would be on and lebensohl off.
6. Other Applications. Lebensohl applies to 1NT overcalls if we make them. Lebensohl applies irrespective of the range of our no trump opening. If we use weak no trumps, we simply make adjustments to high card requirements.
Lebensohl takes work, studying, patience and a regular partner. If this is not for you, return to my last post and take your choice
While the basic lebensohl system remains substantially the same as originally conceived, in the past 20 years experts have continued to refine it in an effort to deal with every card combination that will ever arise. With about 465 billion possible card combinations, you can imagine the complexity that fertile minds have introduced to this once useful system. It is sort of like “the challenge is no longer the opponent’s overcall, but rather the system to deal with it.” Of course when you edit out complexity, something has to give – it probably means that you are going to see a few hands in your lifetime that have no perfect response. That’s the way it goes! If you want the full dose, the “medium complicated” system described on Larry Cohen’s website (http://www.larryco.com/) is probably better than most.
A. Lebensohl’s 2NT Relay Bid.
At the heart of the lebensohl system is the response of 2NT relaying opening bidder to 3 clubs. This relay enables us to differentiate bids based on whether they are made before or after the 2NT relay. If made before the relay they are classified as “fast bids” and if made after the relay are classified a “slow bids.” Since we have an overcall, our ability to continue our auction and play a no trump contract depends on whether we hold a stopper in the overcalled suit(s). Using our slow and fast terminology and applying it to stoppers, the rule is “slow shows and fast denies.” This concept will be applied as we work our way through the bidding structure.
B. Lebensohl in a Nutshell (that’s a laugh!)
1. Opponent’s Doubles. If opponents double partner’s 1NT opening bid, we ignore it and all regular no trump systems are on. e.g. 1NT/x/2d is transfer to hearts. If opponent’s double is a penalty double (equal values) you may want to use redouble as a “run out.” As such it would tell partner to bid his 4 card suits up the line so we can find a safer place to play.
2. Opponent’s Overcalls. Partner opens 1NT and LHO makes a natural or conventional overcall.
a. A 2 club overcall is played as “systems on/ stolen bid.” Thus 1NT/2C/X is Stayman and 2D and 2H would be transfers.
b. If the overcall is 2D or 2H, any other available natural response at the two level is to play. e.g. 1NT/2D/2H or 2S are to play
c. Any 3 level bid is forcing to game. 1NT/2D/3H forces to game in hearts or 3NT. The same would hold true for a 3 level response in the minors
d. The response of 2NT is a relay for partner to bid 3 clubs. After the 3 club bid, passing, or bidding any suit bid under the rank of the overcalled suit, is to play. 1NT/2H/2NT/P/3C/P/3D is to play. Any suit bid over the rank of the overcall is invitational in that suit. 1NT/2d/2NT/P/3C/P/3H is invitational in hearts. (5 card suit + 9 hcps).
e. A direct cue bid by responder is game forcing Stayman. It shows at least one 4 card major and denies a stopper. 1NT/2H/3H shows 4 spades and denies a heart stopper. (remember FAST denies!)
f. A 2NT relay followed by a cue bid in opponent’s suit is also Stayman, but it shows a stopper. 1NT/2H/2NT/P/3C/P/3H shows 4 spades and a stopper in hearts.
g. A direct bid of 3NT after the overcall is a game force and denies a stopper. It would also deny a four card major, since you would have used Stayman by making a cue bid. Thus, 1NT/2H/3NT (no 4 card major and game force values, no heart stopper). Once more “fast denies.”
h. A response of 2NT followed by a bid of 3NT shows a stopper and denies a 4 card major. 1NT/2H/2NT/P/3C/P/3NT is to play. With a four card major you would have made a delayed cue bid for Stayman with a stopper.
i. Any 4 level bid is “front of the card” (i.e. whatever you play over 1NT without the overcall such as Texas Transfer, Gerber, etc).
3. Know What Your Opponent’s Overcalls Mean. Yes you need to ask now, don’t wait until the end of the bidding. If the bid of 2 clubs is Landy (showing majors) or 2 diamonds (Cappelletti showing majors) you don’t want to be making a Stayman response.
4. We Double their Overcall. Unlike original lebensohl, the double is not for penalty, it is negative. This is probably the most useful action we have. Although it usually shows shortness in the bid suit and frequently an unbid 4 card major, in final analysis it says I got some stuff partner and don’t have another bid I like. This double definitely requests some take out from opener. If responder wants to penalty double he must pass and hope that partner reopens the bidding with a double. Opener should reopen if has 2 cards or less in the overcalled suit.
5. Stopper Protocol. Stopper issues only arise where overcalls are conventional showing 2 suits.
a. Many two suited overcalls disclose both suits such as the Cappelletti overcall of 2 diamonds showing majors. If you relay and bid one of the majors it shows a stopper only in that major. If following the relay you bid 3NT, it shows a stopper in both majors. It says nothing about diamonds.
b. More troublesome are bids like the DONT bid of 2 diamonds which shows diamonds and either hearts or spades. Fortunately there are few of them. It is hard to deal with the stopper issue when one of the suits is unknown. Here’s where I take a shortcut. If you have all three stopped, go ahead and bid a delayed 3NT. Since overcaller does not have both majors, you could still use a direct cue bid as Stayman. If you have clubs (a distinct possibility) show your club suit either before or after the relay. Perhaps the easiest thing to do with “cards” is to make a negative double.
c. If the overcall is conventional and shows a single suit, don’t wait for the single suit relay. Take normal Lebensohl action immediately before they find a fit. Most single suit conventional bids are 2 clubs or double. Over either bid, normal no trump system bids would be on and lebensohl off.
6. Other Applications. Lebensohl applies to 1NT overcalls if we make them. Lebensohl applies irrespective of the range of our no trump opening. If we use weak no trumps, we simply make adjustments to high card requirements.
Lebensohl takes work, studying, patience and a regular partner. If this is not for you, return to my last post and take your choice
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