We always seem to notice the 23-24 hcp no trump hands that make 3NT. Naturally, these are always held by our opponents. Do we take equal cognizance of the 26-27 hcps hands that go down at 3NT? These are, of course, dealt to us. What does it really take to make game when partner opens 1NT. It may surprise you that the probabilities do not support 23 and 24 point no trump games. You are a favorite to go down unless our BBO screen name is “ 0 Lordtay.” When the scoring is IMP’s, the game bonuses may support the risk, but at match points you need to play the odds (unless you are desperate or a sadist).
Ron Klinger, noted expert and author, stated in is book Basic Bridge that 3NT has a success rate of only 60% with 26 hcps and only 50% with 25 hcps. In match points you want to avoid anything that is not even money. By way of contrast, Klinger states that the success rate of 4 hearts or 4 spades with an 8 card fit is about 80% with 26 points. Presumably the reason is that two-thirds of the time the suit will split 3-2 leaving you a potential ruffing trick in each hand. The ruffing values combined with better hand control make the suit contract safer. There are some relics out there who disagree, but I don’t play 3NT like they do.
If the suit contract makes 80% of the time, how do you know how to avoid the 20%? Well one sure indicator are the 4333 hands. If both partners have a flat 4333 hand, the advantage of the suit contract disappears. Do your chances of making 3NT go up with flat hands? No, actually they go down.
Marty Bergen (no intro needed) said “4333 hands are bad for suit contracts and equally bad for no trump contracts and 4432 are not a whole lot better.” Even in a suit contract, if you and partner have doubletons in the same suit, the ruffing advantage disappears. It took a while for the bridge community to understand that hands that are 5332 generally play better in no trump that flat hands. In a recent News Letter Larry Cohen (a former Bergen partner) said that most marginal no trump hands that make 3 no trump have been shown to include a 5 card suit. It is common today for teachers to recommend opening 15-17 hcps hands at 1NT even with a 5 card major and to advise adding a point to the response hand if you have a 5 card suit. The more interesting question is should you deduct a point for flat (4333) hands. I think the idea deserves consideration. Start looking at those hands and compare your results to form your own opinion.
Another interesting question that you never see discussed are the 4432 response hands with only one four card major. If partner opens one no trump and responder holds 8+ hcps and a single 4 card major, are there any circumstances where you might choose to not use Stayman? Is not Stayman a can’t lose proposition? Is it possible that I am over medicated and should melt down my ACBL card?
How about the free information you give away to the opponents when you use Stayman? It shows responder has a 4 card major. If opener bids 2 diamonds it shows opener does not. If opener bids two of a major it shows that major and when responder bids 2NT it shows that he had 4 of the other major and less than 10 hcps. Opener has shown that his distribution is 4333 or 4332 and responder has shown his distribution to be 4432 (one major only). If opener doesn’t bid game you know he did not start with a maximum no trump hand. If there were a strong probability of finding opener with a 4 card major that matches responder’s, then you might say “pish tosh” let’s get to important issues. I won’t bore you with probabilities, but the chances of opener having a matching 4 card major or even both majors are very poor. So, if you think you had all this information do you think you could make an intelligent opening lead and defend the hand better? Let’s hope so. If not see my teacher, Pat Peterson: patpete2@tampabay.rr.com or come watch her defend a hand.
Michael Nissler, a California teacher and expert, has an excellent bridge web site known as BridgeHands. I asked Michael if there are 4432 hands on which he would not use Stayman. He said that he would give that question a resounding “it depends.” Wow! A “chink in the armor.” He continued, “If you are going to pass on Stayman with 4332 and simply raise no trump, the time to do it is when responder’s short suits (the 3 and 2 card suit) have significant high card points.” That adds protection and enhances the no trump play.
Michael mentioned another Californian, Gene Simpson, a Grand Life Master, who is closing in on 30,000 master points. You gotta like this guy. When asked for his to 25 tips on winning bridge, the first on the list was get a good partner. You can find Gene’s list published on the Internet. When I asked Gene about this issue, he said when responder has 12 hcps it is best to bid your no trump game instead of majoring in majors. He also said that if responder’s major has no high card points, it is better to raise no trump and avoid Stayman.
Do you think these Californians are like “Cheech and Chong” or is their thinking apparatus working one gear above ours? We report, you decide.
Be forewarned, most club players will be rotely using Stayman and you will probably be going against the grain. Most of the time a 4 card major will not be located so it won’t make any difference. If your analysis is correct you will get a top. Even if an 8 card major is found, it may make the same number of tricks in no trump. "Ca-Ching, Ca-Ching!" Be selective, and make sure when you stray from the asylum the scoring is match points. If all goes wrong “ Close you eyes and think of England.”
In responding to opening no trump bids, I always think the 8 hcps hands present the most challenges. Here’s some advice from expert Gordon Bower on 8 counts:
• With 4333 (any 4 card suit) pass.
• With 4432 pass if your long suits are clubs and diamonds
• With 4432 and one 4 card major it is borderline. Most of the field will be bidding of course, so you may choose to bid just to avoid swings, but I am not certain that in the long run it will be the winning action.
• With 4-4-3-2 (both majors), the odds are well in favor of your bidding
• With more shape (5422 or 5332) bid!!
With an 8 count, I suggest that you consider passing more often if the shape is not favorable, or just taking your shot with no trump. Often when you pass, overly aggressive balancers will often come rushing back in and holding a good 8 count you can "whack" them for penalties.
If you have not visited the site BridgeHands, I urge you to do so and sign up for the bridge blog “Polling You”. This teaching blog section is destined in the future to be a fee based members only teaching site with multiple levels of membership enabling different levels of access, but for the present you can sign up for a free introductory membership. Go to the site, sign up for a membership and also request e-mail notification each time a new poll is posted. The animated videos with commentary by Michael are excellent. I think you will be impressed with the professional quality of the presentation.
Friday, April 22, 2011
Monday, April 11, 2011
Negative Free Bids -- A Definite Postive
Well, if you believe that there is a cost to everything, then you will know that “free bids” are not free. In Bridge, a free bid arises when your partner opens the bidding, his LHO make an overcall and you as responder choose to bid a new suit. The bid is called “free” since even if you don’t bid, your partner (opener) will have another chance to bid and the hand will not be passed out. Thus, you have taken action when you were free not to do so. If you are fortunate, you can make a free bid at the one level (1c/1d/1s). In modern duplicate style this does not show much more that a bid that you would have made without the overcall.
If, however, the overcall requires you to go to the 2 level to show your suit, Standard American bidding requires you to have 11+ hcps and a 4+ card suit. A two level bid free bid is forcing one round and very invitational. So what do you do if you have a nice 5 card suit that you want to get on the table but do not have the required 11 hcps? Well, sometimes a negative double will help you out. After 1c/1d, a negative double would show 6+ hcps and both majors, but when you have a 5 card suit often your suits and distribution will not fit negative double requirements. So you are left with lying to partner or losing the suit. Most often it is better to lose the suit than lose a partner, but there are notable exceptions to that rule. On a good day opener may double the overcall and give you a chance to show your suit, but he might not have a hand appropriate for a reopening double. On a bad day after you pass your LHO raises the bid to 2, 3 or 4 diamonds? Now you and your suit are history.
Enter the concept of a “Negative Free Bid”. Negative because you promise opener that you do not have the hcps to make a classic free bid, but that you have a good 5+ card suit with 5-10 hcps. If you are at the top of your Negative Free Bid range (9-10 hcps) you can make a jump shift. (1c/1d/2h). This most often shows a good 6 card suit. A Negative Free Bid is non-forcing, partner may pass and with a minimal holding will do so. More important than hand strength is suit quality. It might be something like AQJxx or KJTxxx with little or nothing outside. Remember, you may end up as declarer and opener’s pass with minimal values does not guarantee a fit.
Negative Free Bids are "on" through 3 diamonds so free bids of 3 hearts and 3 spades are forcing. Negative Free Bids are very useful in combating those pesky weak jump overcalls. If the bidding goes 1c/2s (sound familiar) with xx, Qxx AJT9xx, xx, you can make a negative free bid of 3 diamonds. We do not want to get shut out when one opponent has already shown a single suited hand with little in defensive values.
The concept of lowering the free bid requirement is driven by the very real possibility that opener may have 3 or 4 cards in your suit and without the negative free bid we will never find our 8+ card fit. In duplicate, effective bidding in competitive auctions depends on finding fits. So, if the bidding is 1d/2c and you find yourself holding xxx, KQT9x, Qx, xxx you make a negative free bid of 2 hearts. This announces that you have a good heart suit with less than 5-10 hcps, and also serve as lead directing if we defend.
Now we know how to bid the minimal hands with good suits, but how do we show partner that we really have a classic free bid with 11+ points and a good suit? Instead of making a bid at the 2 level we double the overcall. Yes that would be a negative double, but is really a two-way bid. Opener assumes it is a real negative double and bids accordingly, but at responder's next he bids his suit signaling to opener that you really hold a classic free bid with 11+ hcps and not a negative double. The bidding proceeds naturally from that point.
Alerts: The Negative Free Bid must be alerted by opener and if asked indicate that it shows a single suited hand with 5-10 hcps. The same alert should be made for jump shift indicating that the hand is in the 9-10 hcp range and likely 6 cards. If responder makes a negative double, alert the double and indicate that responder has either a true negative double or a single suited hand with 11+ hcps. If responder rebids a new suit after a negative double, alert that the double was not negative.
Opener’s Rebids:
I am going to lay out some recommended rebids by opener, but don’t let this detail keep you from getting started. Responder’s negative free bids are very descriptive (most often a 5+ card suit and 5-9 hcps). With that detail, bidding continuations should be almost natural.
For those that want my recommendations here they are:
Pass: Shows a minimum hand and does not promise a fit. Don't run to : 2NT without extra values. It’s easy to under use “pass” in this context!!
Rebid opener’s first suit: Long suit without a fit.
2 NT: 16-18 with a stopper in opponents overcalled suit.
Free single non-competitive raise: Fit plus 15-18 support points.
Double/Redouble: If Opener’s RHO bids over the negative free bid or doubles the bid, a double or redouble by opener is a support double or redouble. Opener may also pass since the support double action is not mandatory with a minimum hand.
Jump Raise: Minimum Opener with a 5+ card fit and great playing strength.
Cue Bid: If opener wants to show a supportive hand for the negative free bid and wishes to convert it to a game forcing auction, he makes a cue bid. 1d/1s/2h/p/2s.
Jump Cue Bid: If opener makes a jump cue bid that shows 4+ card support for the negative free bid suit and a single or void (splinter) in the bid suit. e.g. 1c/1s/2h/p/3s. This bid also shows a big playing hand.
Is this a new concept? No, Marty Bergen first wrote about it in 1986 in Better Bidding by Bergen Vol. 2. It was also detailed by Karen Walker in a 5 part-part series in the Bridge Bulletin in 2005. Many Experts have this treatment as part of their arsenal, but the time has come for Intermediates and Advanced Players to give this serious consideration. Even if you don’t adopt it as part of your system, it is likely that you will be playing pairs that have so it is a good idea to arm yourselves with some information. Can I say it too often? "In todays competitive environment you can't announce a good suit too early."
If, however, the overcall requires you to go to the 2 level to show your suit, Standard American bidding requires you to have 11+ hcps and a 4+ card suit. A two level bid free bid is forcing one round and very invitational. So what do you do if you have a nice 5 card suit that you want to get on the table but do not have the required 11 hcps? Well, sometimes a negative double will help you out. After 1c/1d, a negative double would show 6+ hcps and both majors, but when you have a 5 card suit often your suits and distribution will not fit negative double requirements. So you are left with lying to partner or losing the suit. Most often it is better to lose the suit than lose a partner, but there are notable exceptions to that rule. On a good day opener may double the overcall and give you a chance to show your suit, but he might not have a hand appropriate for a reopening double. On a bad day after you pass your LHO raises the bid to 2, 3 or 4 diamonds? Now you and your suit are history.
Enter the concept of a “Negative Free Bid”. Negative because you promise opener that you do not have the hcps to make a classic free bid, but that you have a good 5+ card suit with 5-10 hcps. If you are at the top of your Negative Free Bid range (9-10 hcps) you can make a jump shift. (1c/1d/2h). This most often shows a good 6 card suit. A Negative Free Bid is non-forcing, partner may pass and with a minimal holding will do so. More important than hand strength is suit quality. It might be something like AQJxx or KJTxxx with little or nothing outside. Remember, you may end up as declarer and opener’s pass with minimal values does not guarantee a fit.
Negative Free Bids are "on" through 3 diamonds so free bids of 3 hearts and 3 spades are forcing. Negative Free Bids are very useful in combating those pesky weak jump overcalls. If the bidding goes 1c/2s (sound familiar) with xx, Qxx AJT9xx, xx, you can make a negative free bid of 3 diamonds. We do not want to get shut out when one opponent has already shown a single suited hand with little in defensive values.
The concept of lowering the free bid requirement is driven by the very real possibility that opener may have 3 or 4 cards in your suit and without the negative free bid we will never find our 8+ card fit. In duplicate, effective bidding in competitive auctions depends on finding fits. So, if the bidding is 1d/2c and you find yourself holding xxx, KQT9x, Qx, xxx you make a negative free bid of 2 hearts. This announces that you have a good heart suit with less than 5-10 hcps, and also serve as lead directing if we defend.
Now we know how to bid the minimal hands with good suits, but how do we show partner that we really have a classic free bid with 11+ points and a good suit? Instead of making a bid at the 2 level we double the overcall. Yes that would be a negative double, but is really a two-way bid. Opener assumes it is a real negative double and bids accordingly, but at responder's next he bids his suit signaling to opener that you really hold a classic free bid with 11+ hcps and not a negative double. The bidding proceeds naturally from that point.
Alerts: The Negative Free Bid must be alerted by opener and if asked indicate that it shows a single suited hand with 5-10 hcps. The same alert should be made for jump shift indicating that the hand is in the 9-10 hcp range and likely 6 cards. If responder makes a negative double, alert the double and indicate that responder has either a true negative double or a single suited hand with 11+ hcps. If responder rebids a new suit after a negative double, alert that the double was not negative.
Opener’s Rebids:
I am going to lay out some recommended rebids by opener, but don’t let this detail keep you from getting started. Responder’s negative free bids are very descriptive (most often a 5+ card suit and 5-9 hcps). With that detail, bidding continuations should be almost natural.
For those that want my recommendations here they are:
Pass: Shows a minimum hand and does not promise a fit. Don't run to : 2NT without extra values. It’s easy to under use “pass” in this context!!
Rebid opener’s first suit: Long suit without a fit.
2 NT: 16-18 with a stopper in opponents overcalled suit.
Free single non-competitive raise: Fit plus 15-18 support points.
Double/Redouble: If Opener’s RHO bids over the negative free bid or doubles the bid, a double or redouble by opener is a support double or redouble. Opener may also pass since the support double action is not mandatory with a minimum hand.
Jump Raise: Minimum Opener with a 5+ card fit and great playing strength.
Cue Bid: If opener wants to show a supportive hand for the negative free bid and wishes to convert it to a game forcing auction, he makes a cue bid. 1d/1s/2h/p/2s.
Jump Cue Bid: If opener makes a jump cue bid that shows 4+ card support for the negative free bid suit and a single or void (splinter) in the bid suit. e.g. 1c/1s/2h/p/3s. This bid also shows a big playing hand.
Is this a new concept? No, Marty Bergen first wrote about it in 1986 in Better Bidding by Bergen Vol. 2. It was also detailed by Karen Walker in a 5 part-part series in the Bridge Bulletin in 2005. Many Experts have this treatment as part of their arsenal, but the time has come for Intermediates and Advanced Players to give this serious consideration. Even if you don’t adopt it as part of your system, it is likely that you will be playing pairs that have so it is a good idea to arm yourselves with some information. Can I say it too often? "In todays competitive environment you can't announce a good suit too early."
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