The game is matchpoints. You hold 42, AJ973, JT83, Q3. Partner opens and the auction is 1c/1h/1NT/? As responder what rebid options are open to you and
what action should you take. The Bridge God’s will forgive you if you think
there is no option other than pass. Bidding summaries on the Internet and
elsewhere are quick to generalize and conclude that responder cannot rebid an
unsupported suit at the 2 level with a minimum hand (6-9 hcps) unless he holds
6 cards in the suit. If that rule had no exceptions, you would have no option
other than to pass this hand. While that may be the rule for most 1/1/1
auctions, there is an exception for hands where opener rebids 1 NT since in
this auction opener guaranteed 2 or 3 hearts and the hand may well play better
in 2 hearts than 1NT. Figuring out where this hand will play the best is
probably a 90 vs. 110 score difference, not worth much consideration in IMP’s,
but a big deal in match points.
As a numbers
guy, my first inquiry is always what are the chances of finding 3 card support
in opener’s hand? To determine that we need to know the likely distributions of
opener’s hand when he rebids 1NT. Absent some strange agreements, opener’s hand
should be either 4333 (26.5%), 4432 (55.5%), 323(5) and 32(5)3 (19%). So how
likely is it that you will catch partner with 3 card support for your 5 card
major? If you weigh all that out, I think you will find that opener has 3 card
support about 75% of the time and 2 card support 25% of the time, so the odds
favor 3 card support by 3 to 1. Given that the hands are likely to produce an 8
card suit, how likely is it that this will translate into an extra trick when
played in the suit contract?
This depends
on too many variables for my calculating skills. I think it is fair to say that
when opener’s hand is 4333, the hand will likely make the same number of tricks
in no trump as in a suit contract due to the lack of ruffing opportunities in
opener’s hand, but if opener has 3 trump and any of the other distribution, a
suit contract is favored to score better. Here are some other considerations:
1. When responder’s hand is in the 6-8 hcp range, you often
find there are problems getting to the dummy in no trump contracts. If declarer
has to get 7 tricks playing it out of his hand, it is almost always a disaster.
Playing the hand in a suit contract will ease this problem.
2. It is easier to control a hand when there is a trump
suit. Having a trump suit enables you to neutralize opponent’s potential long
suit tricks.
3. It may be easier to set up a side suit trick of your own
if you can ruff a round, particularly when it is 5-2.
4. Partner’s rebid of 1NT is not always ideal, and sometimes
a least worst choice. He will often hold a worthless doubleton or a suit with
only a half stopper. In the introductory hand and auction, opener did not rebid
spades over the 1 heart response and responder herself has only a small
doubleton spade. This spade weakness is likely to make the 1NT contract
inferior.
5. If partner had opened 1NT, everybody with the responder
hand would have transferred and passed, playing it in 2 hearts. Rebidding the 5
card major suit is not different and is supported by the same logic.
6. If you do not bid the 5 card suit you have lost the only
opportunity to find the 5-3 fit due to the higher hcp requirements of NMF and
CBS.
7. Rebidding the 5 card suit will make it more difficult for
opponents to balance. If the bidding goes 1d/1s/1NT/2s, now the opponents have
to balance at the 3 level as you have taken away a level of bidding.
8. Most players are better at playing suit contracts than no
trump contracts. If you think you are better at declaring than your partner,
bidding the suit gives you an opportunity to play the contract.
9. Most responder’s will likely take the path of least
resistance and pass 1NT rather than explain to partner why they did not. This
means that most of the field will be playing 1NT. If you reason this out and
remove the contract to 2 hearts and it is the correct decision, in match points
you are likely to get a near top.
It is not
that any one of these reasons are decisive taken alone, but taken together, I
think they support doing an analysis before you pass 1NT. In final analysis, if
it is a close case I tend to bid. In terms of responder’s suit I prefer one
that is chunky, but unlikely to run in No Trump. Maybe QJT97 rather than KQJxx.
When you hear
responder rebid his suit, don’t necessarily assume that he has 6 pieces. The
better the player, the more likely that he has 5. In these bidding sequences,
it is likely that the points are evenly divided between the two partnerships.
If the hcps are equal, if declarer is to make his contract, it usually means
that he is going to have to steal a ruff in the short trump hand. I would tend
to follow normal lead principles if there is an attractive lead, but in default
of a better lead, I would lead trump. Since dummy is likely to have 2 or 3
trump in order to avoid cheap ruffing tricks, a good defense is to start declarer
off with a “draw” strategy whether he
likes it or not.
Perhaps this
concept is too basic for most of my readers, but I got into exploring it at the
request of two good players who asked for my comments. This lead me to believe
that issue is not as well understood as I thought it would be. As is often the
case, I may be the biggest beneficiary of the research and writing. Happy
Bridging. Comments and Critique to tommy@rochester.rr.com